for common reference:
Thu 1: arrive EWR 5.50pm
Thu-Sat 1-3: NYC
Sun-Wed 4-7: Boston / New England
Wed 7: arrive PHL 6.55pm
Wed-Fri 7-9: PHL
Fri-Mon 9-12: NYC
Tue-Sun 13-18: PHL
Mon 19: depart PHL 6.55am
Tuesday, 29 April 2008
Monday, 21 April 2008
who will dance on the floor in the round
Currently Reading: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
attended interesting talk by a couple of imf economists today. they painted a fairly pessimistic view for the world economy, with a 25% (iirc) chance that there will be a global recession. america is probably already in one, and europe to follow, but emerging economies will diverge (though not decouple) - currently forecasting that momentum will carry us through.
i'd like to focus on the last one, that emerging economies are likely to go through based on momentum - we will only be derailed by a prolonged recession. (although they did highlighted that the risks are on the downside).
while tail risks in the financial sector have been averted with the flood of liquidity into the system, i believe that the forecast does not account for tail risks on the socio-political front, especially with inflation taking centrestage.
asians in general are a pretty stoic lot, willing to work long hours for low wages. however the breaking point comes when the rice (yes, rice) bowl is affected, as is the case now. inflation may lead to irrational policy decisions (like food price controls) or worse, rioting among the populace, which could knock on to political instability (see Tiananmen Square 1989). the effects of these fallouts would be exponential rather than linear. growth aside, this could possibly cause further adverse effects on commodity prices, or even on manufactured goods prices.
bearish, huh?
[next change: is bernanke's belief that liquidity would help (just like it should have in the great depression) tenable?]
well three weeks of discipline went down the chute today. hopefully we'll be able to pick it up and polish it up again. before this, slipped a couple of times, but the incidents were minor enough that you could shrug it off. this one's different though. a wave, five minutes walking to the destination, three in an enclosed area and that insidious magic was worked. why do you think i have been studiously and rigorously avoiding even the teetchiest bit of contact? this fragile edifice will take a little while to duct tape back together again.
attended interesting talk by a couple of imf economists today. they painted a fairly pessimistic view for the world economy, with a 25% (iirc) chance that there will be a global recession. america is probably already in one, and europe to follow, but emerging economies will diverge (though not decouple) - currently forecasting that momentum will carry us through.
i'd like to focus on the last one, that emerging economies are likely to go through based on momentum - we will only be derailed by a prolonged recession. (although they did highlighted that the risks are on the downside).
while tail risks in the financial sector have been averted with the flood of liquidity into the system, i believe that the forecast does not account for tail risks on the socio-political front, especially with inflation taking centrestage.
asians in general are a pretty stoic lot, willing to work long hours for low wages. however the breaking point comes when the rice (yes, rice) bowl is affected, as is the case now. inflation may lead to irrational policy decisions (like food price controls) or worse, rioting among the populace, which could knock on to political instability (see Tiananmen Square 1989). the effects of these fallouts would be exponential rather than linear. growth aside, this could possibly cause further adverse effects on commodity prices, or even on manufactured goods prices.
bearish, huh?
[next change: is bernanke's belief that liquidity would help (just like it should have in the great depression) tenable?]
well three weeks of discipline went down the chute today. hopefully we'll be able to pick it up and polish it up again. before this, slipped a couple of times, but the incidents were minor enough that you could shrug it off. this one's different though. a wave, five minutes walking to the destination, three in an enclosed area and that insidious magic was worked. why do you think i have been studiously and rigorously avoiding even the teetchiest bit of contact? this fragile edifice will take a little while to duct tape back together again.
Friday, 18 April 2008
stretch
empty. things have picked up a little bit... some bright spots on the horizon, but it's important to be patient. hopefully once this bloody exam is over, i can put "Get A Life Plan B" into action. thinking of:
- working with the alien, widow, fatherless, etc.
- get in shape
- relearn to drive
- learn about the really fun finance stuff ~ i.e. build some models of my own
- some kind of outdoorsy stuff
still working on the relationships (not The Relationship - that's been put on the back-burner for now... possibly to stew =p). but its probably gonna be hard to rebuild the old structure from college. and the old-old structure from wayyy before isn't relevant anymore. not many worth cultivating there. it is important to cultivate a wide variety of people, and yet not sink into the mire of plain "networking".
what's necessary will be confidantes. with a home base you can take on the world. but they ain't easy to come by. and very few people make good confidantes.
it feels quite odd. i guess it's the suburban rot setting in. away from the squalor (sp?) of West and North Philadelphia, poverty feels distant. even in the Neighbouring Country, the areas which i frequent don't really have poverty. yet it is a very real issue that was one of those which caused the government great losses in the last election. where are the deeds? replaced by an empty "let them eat cake" mentality, when i give from the wallet (not nearly enough) but not from the heart.
a lot of economic-type thoughts floating around, with good analysis, but somehow they don't quite make it to writing. maybe someone can suggest a topic for commentary?
- working with the alien, widow, fatherless, etc.
- get in shape
- relearn to drive
- learn about the really fun finance stuff ~ i.e. build some models of my own
- some kind of outdoorsy stuff
still working on the relationships (not The Relationship - that's been put on the back-burner for now... possibly to stew =p). but its probably gonna be hard to rebuild the old structure from college. and the old-old structure from wayyy before isn't relevant anymore. not many worth cultivating there. it is important to cultivate a wide variety of people, and yet not sink into the mire of plain "networking".
what's necessary will be confidantes. with a home base you can take on the world. but they ain't easy to come by. and very few people make good confidantes.
it feels quite odd. i guess it's the suburban rot setting in. away from the squalor (sp?) of West and North Philadelphia, poverty feels distant. even in the Neighbouring Country, the areas which i frequent don't really have poverty. yet it is a very real issue that was one of those which caused the government great losses in the last election. where are the deeds? replaced by an empty "let them eat cake" mentality, when i give from the wallet (not nearly enough) but not from the heart.
a lot of economic-type thoughts floating around, with good analysis, but somehow they don't quite make it to writing. maybe someone can suggest a topic for commentary?
Wednesday, 9 April 2008
24601
many things, disjointed.
perhaps it's not that you've become a poor listener, but you've been listening to all the wrong things?
maybe the right course of action was not to "do nothing" but to "do something else". seeing things start up again, but still that lost vital kernel is out there, somewhere.
have adopted something quite close to the "nuclear option". there's been no pushback yet, not even a "haven't seen you in awhile." is it vindication? i did not even dare to look at the expression on your face (if any) today. but... purity! i have sacrificed you, or rather that caricature of you for purity. may i gain You and you in the bargain.
asset-backed securities are evil. i have just discovered their fiendish complexity. how does anyone value something like that reliably? plus there are so many loopholes and hidden default scenarios that it smells like one huge Ponzi scheme. toxic, my dear, toxic.
what does it mean not to be a "conventional Christian", yet still not slip into untruth? you don't want to do the cliches and the empty promises. you want to maintain the grittiness and perserverance and general going-through-shit that the Master certainly had. but it's not easy to avoid the venom, the self-righteousness, the cynicism, or the disappointment.
i joined the church choir. this means i have to wake up at 7.00am every Sunday morning. Warm-ups at 8, service at 8.30, breakfast at 10, rehearsal 11 till 1. i like singing though. it's a challenge singing in parts rather than the melody - you get strange sounds stuck in your head. i am now one of three tenors in the choir. got shanghaied in a part wayyyy high for the natural bass-baritone cos they needed people there.
God gives you strange gifts and asks you to make odd and painful sacrifices.
there are a few grains of economic insight somewhere, but we shall reserve them... for the next post. i am tired.
perhaps it's not that you've become a poor listener, but you've been listening to all the wrong things?
maybe the right course of action was not to "do nothing" but to "do something else". seeing things start up again, but still that lost vital kernel is out there, somewhere.
have adopted something quite close to the "nuclear option". there's been no pushback yet, not even a "haven't seen you in awhile." is it vindication? i did not even dare to look at the expression on your face (if any) today. but... purity! i have sacrificed you, or rather that caricature of you for purity. may i gain You and you in the bargain.
asset-backed securities are evil. i have just discovered their fiendish complexity. how does anyone value something like that reliably? plus there are so many loopholes and hidden default scenarios that it smells like one huge Ponzi scheme. toxic, my dear, toxic.
what does it mean not to be a "conventional Christian", yet still not slip into untruth? you don't want to do the cliches and the empty promises. you want to maintain the grittiness and perserverance and general going-through-shit that the Master certainly had. but it's not easy to avoid the venom, the self-righteousness, the cynicism, or the disappointment.
i joined the church choir. this means i have to wake up at 7.00am every Sunday morning. Warm-ups at 8, service at 8.30, breakfast at 10, rehearsal 11 till 1. i like singing though. it's a challenge singing in parts rather than the melody - you get strange sounds stuck in your head. i am now one of three tenors in the choir. got shanghaied in a part wayyyy high for the natural bass-baritone cos they needed people there.
God gives you strange gifts and asks you to make odd and painful sacrifices.
there are a few grains of economic insight somewhere, but we shall reserve them... for the next post. i am tired.
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